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Condominium Market Update: DECEMber 2006

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NOTE

The Condominium Market Update has now been expanded to include Sarasota County. The source of all data in this report is Trendgraphix, which includes only activity included in each county’s Multiple Listing Service.

Summary

As the last year numbers start to roll around on the beginning periods of the slow down, spreads in unit volume versus last year start too narrow. In fact, unit volume actually increased from October to November this year while it declined in this same period last year. The average sales price per square foot also increased from the previous month, just missing last years figure. However, all of the increase in the average sales price per square foot occurred in Sarasota County, where an increase in beach front sales pushed the November sales per square foot up to $295 from $226 in October.

Manatee County - Monthly Activity 2006 vs. 2005

The inventory of condos listed for sale in MLS increased only slightly during November to just under 1,800 units.

The good news is that the condos placed under contract increased from 33 in October to 52 in November. Last year, as the slow down was just starting, there was actually a decrease in units placed under contract during this period.

While the percentage increase over last month and the narrowing spread compared to last year are encouraging, its hard to get too excited simply because the sales figures are so small compared to the nearly 1,800 units on the market.

	Total Condos on the Market		Condos Placed Under Contract		Condos Sold/Closed		Months of Supply
	2006	2005	2006	2005	2006	2005	2006	2005
Dec	--	859	--	79	--	71	--	12
Nov	1,784	740	52	57	43	60	41	12
Oct	1,707	563	33	70	38	98	46	6
Sept	1,649	431	41	114	44	88	47	5
August	1,679	347	56	102	46	109	37	3
July	1,664	271	40	100	48	132	34	2
June	1,602	245	51	107	82	145	19	2
May	1,570	238	57	141	95	138	16	2
April	1,534	241	84	136	76	138	20	2
March	1,485	236	92	241	105	139	14	2
Feb	1,296	284	81	149	45	81	28	4
Jan	986	297	79	141	55	71	18	4

	Median Sale Price 000's		Avg Sale/Ask % Spread		Avg Days on Market - Sold Condos
	2006	2005	2006	2005	2006	2005
Dec	--	211	--	97	--	43
Nov	163	214	94	98	85	38
Oct	162	246	94	98	83	34
Sept	165	209	94	96	87	37
August	200	239	96	97	75	49
July	177	201	95	98	90	30
June	230	190	96	98	77	31
May	186	194	96	98	68	38
April	184	195	97	98	50	41
March	186	190	96	98	49	41
Feb	230	180	95	98	65	38
Jan	240	165	97	97	51	35

Sarasota County - Monthly Activity 2006 vs. 2005

The story for Sarasota is not much different than Manatee. The only significant differences here are that the average days on market is about 20% greater in Sarasota and sellers seem to be giving up on their asking prices quicker.

	Total Condos on the Market		Condos Placed Under Contract		Condos Sold/Closed		Months of Supply
	2006	2005	2006	2005	2006	2005	2006	2005
Dec	--	1611	--	169	--	292	--	10
Nov	2917	1419	131	135	95	155	31	11
Oct	2784	1165	74	163	63	167	49	7
Sept	2694	969	238	181	77	209	36	5
August	2601	786	91	285	96	229	27	3
July	2642	691	95	216	99	223	26	3
June	2616	639	114	259	164	260	16	3
May	2702	592	175	263	168	268	16	2
April	2668	601	229	282	149	273	18	2
March	2513	579	184	297	156	255	16	2
Feb	2298	587	146	308	119	191	19	3
Jan	1953	608	118	241	132	209	15	3

	Median Sale Price 000's		Avg Sale/Ask % Spread		Avg Days on Market - Sold Condos
	2006	2005	2006	2005	2006	2005
Dec	--	644	--	99	--	84
Nov	370	293	94	95	109	59
Oct	210	309	93	96	109	73
Sept	253	275	92	96	113	74
August	241	290	95	98	118	70
July	258	268	95	97	111	52
June	298	271	95	96	97	51
May	283	291	96	97	83	57
April	280	265	94	97	90	57
March	315	275	96	97	100	56
Feb	423	248	96	97	96	47
Jan	462	255	96	97	91	68

Implications for buyers and sellers

If you really want to sell your condo in the next 6 months, I would recommend you do 3 things:

1. Get the right mental perspective. If the market for your condo was $300,000 a year ago and today it’s only worth $250,000, then you are not giving your condo away if you sell it for $250,000 – your getting the market price, which still reflects a huge amount of appreciation over the past 5 years. There is nothing you can do about the market. You can either accept the price it is offering today or wait for a better market. Before you decide to wait, study the numbers in the tables above and ensure that you can afford the holding costs (i.e. pay maintenance fees and taxes) during the marketing period.

2. Make your condo look at nice as possible. The cleaner, newer, fresher your place looks the better your chances of selling the unit. Don’t think twice about replacing your old carpet and spending money on a top to bottom paint job.

3. Price your condo to be the cheapest among similar sized homes in your community. With taxes and maintenance fees generally out of control, you want to be the next unit to sell. As your time on the market drags on, your cost of ownership will further erode your net profits (or increase your loss) on the sale. Also, as you increase your investment due to taxes and maintenance fees, you will come to think that somebody owes you for this (which, of course, is not true). It will affect your perspective and make it difficult for you to accept a market offer.

If you are thinking of buying a condo

If you are considering the purchase of a condo as a vacation or retirement home, now is the time to start looking. Here’s why:
• There have never been more condos on the market than right now. You won’t have to settle for a location or floor plan because the one you want isn’t on the market.
• As a buyer, you are in the driver’s seat. Depending on how far the asking price has already been reduced, you could get seller concessions that lower your purchase price to less than the market bottom that will eventually occur.
• Prices could move lower, but if you are buying for the long term, if will make little difference in 10 years that you paid a little more than the absolute lowest theoretical price.
• If you are waiting for the market to bottom, talk to one of the 5,000 sellers in Manatee/Sarasota who thought they could pick the market top. Odds are that you will be no better at buying the bottom than they were at selling the top. The difference is that the sellers will always be able to sell (at some price), but if prices shoot up again you could get priced out of the market permanently.