Case-Shiller Update September Prices (November Release)
Choppy is what best describes the past year of the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Since peaking in August 2006, the 20 market National Composite index declined for 33 months in a row. That’s represents a decline in home prices every month between August 2006 and April 2009. During this period the index declined from a value of 206 to 139 or about 33%. The indices for Tampa and Miami declined about 41% and 48%, respectively, during this same period.
source is S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for September 2011 (released in November 2011)
Since April 2009, the 20 market national composite index has bounced around moving up for 3 or 4 months then down for 3 or 4 months. Currently the national composite index stands 2% higher than April 2009. So the general trend through all of the choppiness over the past 2 and half years has been up. The Florida indices have continued to decline during the past 2 and half years. Since April 2009, Tampa and Miami are down 10% and 5% respectively. However, most of this decline happened early on in the period. For 2011, both Florida indices are down only about 1%.
This choppiness is more or less what you would expect at some turning point in the market. Either they market is taking a breather before going lower or the period of price declines is about to be over. I think the foreclosure story will be the deciding factor here and may be what is contributing to the price fluctuations. Read my post on Distressed Property here to get more details.