Case-Shiller Indices up Nationally but Down in Florida Markets
The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for April were released yesterday. The indices increased in most markets along with the 10 market and 20 market composite indices. Tampa and Miami, the only two Florida markets tracked by Case-Shiller were 2 of the 7 markets that decreased from March (with 13 markets showing increases). The Tampa market was down .4% from March and is now 7.7% down from last year. Miami was down .2% in April and is down 5.6% from this time last year. Prices in both markets are roughly back to the summer of 2002.
Other, non-Florida markets declining during April were Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit (down 2.9% for the month alone), and Las Vegas. The biggest gainer was Washington DC ( up 3% for the month-your tax dollars are having an effect). DC is also the only market to have a year-over-year increase (up 4% over this time last year). The worst performing market in the past 12 months has been Minneapolis (down 11.1%).
The index values for Las Vegas, Cleveland, and Detroit are currently 97.69, 96.47, and 62.74. This means that all three of these markets have completely given up all gains made since January 2000. Prices in Detroit are less than 2/3 of their January 2000 level.
As with last month, there are statements in the analysis that accompanies the release of the indices that may make you think that our market is different than the rest of the country. For example, the analyst states that “Existing home sales rose in May, but are still 15% below last year’s pace and about 35% below their 2005 pace”. That’s clearly not the case in Sarasota and not exactly true in Manatee County. Sarasota single family home sales in 2011 are actually .3% AHEAD of the 2010 pace of 5,991 home sales. This will put them just 7% behind 2005 and nowhere near the lows which occurred in 2007 when just 3,921 homes sold.
In Manatee County, sales this year are 9% AHEAD of the 2010 pace. In 2010, a total of 3,966 homes sold in Manatee County. If the current trend continues, then 2011 should see nearly 4,400 home sales. Manatee home sales in 2005 were 5,697. So even with the 4,400 potential sales this year, 2011 will still be 23% below 2005. However, we will never get to 2005 levels this year simply because we don’t have enough inventory to do so. Still is should be well above the floor in 2008 when just 3,363 homes sold.
Another quote in the analysis is that “Single family housing starts were up in May but still well below their 2010 levels and still very close to their 30 year lows. Well, read
this about Lakewood Ranch. Lakewood Ranch has to account for the lion’s share of new construction activity in Manatee County if not both counties combined. According to the article, in 2011 420 new homes are predicted to sell which will be the best year for new construction sales since 2006 (when 650 homes sold). While 440 homes is still about 1/3 under the 2006 levels and 46% under the all time high of 750 sales that occurred in 2004, it is nowhere near the floor that occurred in 2009 when just 120 new homes sold.