Manatee County Real Estate Market Update - April 2011
Manatee County Single Family Homes
From June of 2009 through August 2010, the inventory of unsold homes in Manatee County had been stuck on 3000 units. And 3000 isn’t a horrible number. It represents roughly the same level as October 2005. However, since August 2010, the inventory level began to inch downward. By February of this year, inventory broke below 2800 units. At the end of April, inventory crashed below 2400 units to 2395.
Sales have also picked up. While the seasonality and month-to-month swings in volume make things less obvious in the chart below, the lows and highs are getting higher. For example, January is usually the slowest month of the year. For the past 3 Januarys (2009, 2010, and 2011), January unit sales were 181, 214, and 256 respectively. Similarly, June is usually the highest volume closing month. For the same 3 years, June sales have been 333, 396 and ???. We obviously don’t know what June 2011 will be yet but sales for March (which is almost always less than June) totaled 427. Again, for the past 3 months the low months have been increasing along with the high volume months.
Sales have actually been increasing every year since 2008. The past 12 months of sales represents the highest volume 12 month period since 2006.
With the reduction in inventory and increase in sales there are now just 7 months of unsold supply on hand as of the end of April. Compare this to the 22 months of supply on hand at the end of 2006 to see how things have improved.
Manatee County Condo Market
Condos are more or less the same story only the trajectory of the decline in inventory has been steeper. That being said, inventory levels in condos are back to the same point in time as single family homes – roughly October 2005.
Condo sales seem to also be a bit stronger. Even with the random swings in monthly sales, the trend is obviously up from what looks to be a bottom in late summer 2008. Like single family homes, sales have increased every year since 2008. And even more dramatic, the last 12 months of sales is larger than any other 12 month period since 2004 with the exception of 2005. There have been 1259 Manatee County condos sold in the 12 months ended April 30, 2011. In 2005, the biggest year in at least this century if no ever, only 1539 were sold.
However, even with the improvement in sales and the slashing of inventory, the months of supply statistic is still approaching 10. Anything above 6 months of supply means that the buyers still have the upper hand. There is still too much inventory on the market for the level of demand. Buyers have too many choices for sellers to have much influence on price. But, we are definately moving in the right direction.