Areas of Sarasota Real Estate Market Start to Tilt Sellers Way
The inventory of unsold single family homes in Sarasota County first broke under the 5000 unit level (after the Sarasota real estate market topped) in April 2009. Four months later inventory broke through the 4000 unit barrier. However, for the past 12 months the level has been bouncing around 4000 units, plus or minus 2% of each month. As of the end of August 2010, there are 3,925 unsold homes - slightly higher than the 3,878 homes for sale at the end of August 2009. As you can see from the chart below, the 4000 unit inventory level is roughly the same level that was on hand in late 2005
Unit sales are up 11% so far this year. No doubt the tax credit offered earlier in the year has pulled some sales forward. Sales through June of this year compared last year were up over 18% yet July sales in 2010 were down 24% compared to July 2009. August 2010 sales were more or less flat with August 2009. So, there was obviously some pull forward that will likely have at least a small negative effect on sales for the balance of the year.
Months of supply using average monthly sales through August has dropped from 8.3 to 7.5 months. Even if sales slow some, our months of supply figure shouldn’t get out of hand as long as inventory stays around the 4000 unit mark. Even though 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market, with anything over 6 months being considered a buyers market, 7-8 months of supply on a county wide basis is low enough to generate some tight spots in certain areas and price points. Currently the under $500,000 market is hot in zip codes 34238 (Palmer Ranch area), 34242 (Siesta Key), and 34239 (south of downtown, including the West of Trail area). All of these areas have between 5.0 and 5.7 months of supply. If you are looking for a home in these areas you might start to see limited homes for sale meeting your criteria, sellers being tougher on price, or multiple offers on the same home.