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Scott Norris, Broker/Associate

Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate, LLC
201 Gulf of Mexico Drive Ste. 1
Longboat Key, FL 34228

Direct: 941-387-1880
Cell: 941-545-8706
Email: Scott@ScottNorris.com
Website: ScottNorris.com

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Try the new ScottNorris.com Mobile App

  
  
  
  

Trulia, a popular home search website, states that 40% of their customer inquiries come through mobile devices and that the growth rate is so fast, mobile inquiries will soon surpass desktop.

This only makes sense as customers looking for homes are always, well, looking for homes. Whether they are driving around through neighborhoods actively searching for a home, riding with their real estate agent,  or just coming home from work, every "For Sale" sign is an attraction. Rather than trying to remember the listing address for subsequent online look up, home buyers now have the opportunity to see pictures and read MLS data about the home all from their mobile phone or tablet while sitting in their car in front of the home. Accordingly, every major home search website (Trulia, Zillow, Realtor.com, Coldwell Banker.com) now has a companion mobile site. 

Mobile sites generally look nothing like their companion desktop sites. Mobile sites are optimized for mobile devices. That means small screens among other things. Whether out of necessity (because of limited space) or intentional design, mobile sites seem to be more single-purpose focused and take minimal key strokes to get at the information they provide. For example, Realtor.com knows that most people just want pictures and listing information on a specific house, street, or neighborhood when accessing their mobile site. So the site is designed to provide just that information. You wont find much fluff about the home buying process, market research articles, etc on their mobile site. Just easy to access information about homes for sale. Realtor.com is does this a number of ways but the coolest is their map format. Just bring up the application and it will immediately start showing you homes for sale around your present location. As you move or drive down a street,  new listings will appear on the map.


scottnorris.mobi

I felt like I needed a mobile app mostly because my desktop website will eventually  just become obsolete and useless if accessing it by a mobile device was a chore. I also knew that I could not compete with all the cool features of Realtor.com or Trulia. But I thought I could still create something very useful by being a specialist - that is, just focusing on the downtown Sarasota Condo market.

scottnorris.com

Besides offering contact links (phone and email) you can only do one thing on the app and that is look at condos for sale in ZIP code 34236 by building. Once you select either Lido or Downtown, you are presented with a list of buildings in that area. Touch the building name to see thumbnails of each residence for sale in that building.

thumbnailpage

Touch any thumbnail to see the details of that property and access all of the photography. As a perk to my customers, all my downtown listings (regardless of building)  rotate through a slide show in the right margin.

To try it out just visit www.ScottNorris.com on any mobile device. My website will sense that you are using a mobile device and offer you the application. If you say yes, the app will install on your phone in about 5 seconds. If you decide you don't want the app on your phone, just delete it.

Please try it out and let me know what you think.

 

2013 Downtown Condo Sales Tie 10 Year Old Record

  
  
  
  

Unless otherwise stated, all data is from Trendgraphix and the My Florida Regional MLS. All information relates to condominium property types and ZIP code 34236 for the first four months in 2012 and 2013.

 

Condo Sales and Inventory in Downtown Sarasota for First 4 Months of 2013

Unit sales in the first four months of 2013 outpaced the same period in 2012 by 15.5% (141 vs. 122). On the east side of the Ringling Bridge, sales improved even more –up 33% (116 vs. 90).  After adjusting for new construction closings in 2007, the first 4 months of this year was the best start for condominium sales downtown than any year back to 2004 (when an identical amount of 141 residences sold). This year tied a decade-old high water mark.

 downtown sarasota condo sales 2012

If that’s not enough, this strong sales showing took place when inventory levels were at a 12year low. Inventory has been falling since the peak in April of 2007 when 706 residences were listed for sale and has been bouncing around the 200 mark since July 2012. Prior to July 2012, the last time there were fewer than 300 condominiums on the market was December 2002. The last time inventory was lower than 205 residences was December 2001 (when there were 195 for sale).

Downtown Sarasota condo inventory historical

Million $ Plus Condo Sales in Downtown Sarasota

Sales of residences in the $1-million-plus category decreased in the first four months of 2013 compared to 2012 from 19 residences to 17. I’d call this a “no change” which, given the overall market conditions described above, is pretty poor. Inventory levels declined but in no significant way - 68 at the start of 2012 to 61 at the start of 2013.  This change too is minor and shouldn’t cause any fall off in sales or for that matter keep sales from exploding as they have in the general market.

The charts below show pricing histories of the “over-a-million” market compared to the “under-a- million” market. Looking at the tail end of the asking price lines (green) on both charts you can see where the average asking price on residences over a million has steadily increased over the past 6-8 months while under- a- million ones have shown a lower asking price. This could explain some the variances in sales activity.  When asking prices move up sales should slow and when they move down sales should increase – that’s what seems to be happening.

 describe the image

 sarasota condos under a million

Distressed Properties in Inventory -Downtown Sarasota at April 30, 2013

The year 2012 started with a total of just 22 distressed listings or about 8% of total inventory.  This year started with only 5 distressed property listings which represented just 2% of total unsold inventory. April ended with 15 distressed listings in 2012 and only 8 in 2013. While they provide a few annoying comparable sales in certain buildings, the sheer lack of volume makes foreclosures and short sales meaningless in the overall market.

You may have read news articles about banks keeping foreclosed homes they own off the market for various reasons. There are also articles about how foreclosure hurdles are being removed to speed up the foreclosure process. The end conclusion is always a tidal wave of foreclosures is about to hit the market. All this may be true in general but it doesn’t seem true for the downtown condo market because:

  1. The latest CoreLogic negative equity report indicates that virtually the entire negative equity problem is limited to the under $200,000 price point. In Sarasota County as well as the nearby counties that are part of our MLS system, the bulk of distressed inventory is in the under $200k price point, as shown in the chart below.Distressed Inventory by county SW Florida
  2. The story about the next big wave of foreclosures doesn’t explain why short sale inventory has declined so rapidly. Yes, many people wait for the foreclosure process to heat up before putting their home on the market. However, in today’s environment, short sellers are receiving huge incentives from the government and their lender to induce them to participate in a short sale – tens of thousands of dollars in some cases. They are the happiest people at the closing table having hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt wiped out and walking away from the table with enough cash for a new Lexus. With these types of incentives, short sales should be booming if there were in fact a large number of delinquent loans. As of the end of April 2013 only 4 of the 205 total condo listings downtown were short sales.

 

 

 

Corelogic Negative Equity Report for Q3 2012

  
  
  
  

The 2012 third quarter CoreLogic Negative Equity report was released on January 17, 2013. The report attempts to quantify the number and percentage of homeowners that are “underwater” in their mortgages (owe more than their home is worth) by state. 

The report was generally positive with 1.3 million mortgages moving from negative to positive equity during the quarter. Across the nation, 22% of all mortgages are still underwater, down from 23.7% in the Q2 report. On the negative side, Florida still ranks as the number 2 state with 42% of all residential mortgages underwater. Nevada is number 1 with 57%.  Nevada and Florida are also 1 and 2 in terms of high average loan-to-value ratios with Nevada at an astounding 109% and Florida at 86%

Other highlights in the report were as follows:

  • Arizona (39%), Georgia(36%), and Michigan(32%) rounded out the top 5 states with highest percentage of negative equity loans.

  • Nationally, there are 1.8 million more loans that are only 5% underwater. Another year of increases in prices could wipe another 18% of the negative equity mortgages off the list.

  • The bulk of the negative equity situation is at the low end of the market (homes valued at less than $200,000). Nationally, 28.7% of all mortgaged homes with values under $200,000  are underwater compared with just 14.5% for homes valued above $200,000.

  • Net homeowners’ equity in all mortgaged properties increased $200 billion during the quarter from $3.6 trillion to $3.8 trillion. California accounted for 25% of this increase or about $52 billion (California accounts for 22% of the value of all mortgaged residential property). The top 5 states (those listed above) with the most negative equity loans accounted for another 25% of the $200 billion increase in national net homeowners’ equity. In other words, the worse states improved significantly. This increase in the top 5 most underwater states is most likely due to the higher than average number of foreclosures and short sales (which eliminate mortgage debt entirely) in those states. Also, three of these states (Nevada, Arizona, and Florida) experienced nice rates of appreciation in the 3rd quarter, which to an over leveraged homeowner, is a huge blessing.

You can download the Q3 2012 report here and the Q2 2012 report here.

Manatee and Sarasota Distressed Property Situation Improves

  
  
  
  

The distressed property picture for both Manatee and Sarasota Counties continues to improve. As the chart below shows, distressed property sales accounted for 32% and 39%  of sales in Sarasota and Manatee Counties respectively, down from 45% (Sarasota) and 49% (Manatee) in 2010.

Sarasota foreclosures

 

While new distressed listings remained flat in Sarasota during 2012 compared to 2011 and actually increased slightly in Manatee County during this period, both counties are down significantly from 2010 levels. New distressed listings were down 36% in Sarasota and 25% in Manatee during 2012 compared with 2010.

As pointed out in my pricing post a few days ago, the recovery is not uniform across all areas and price points. Just as I believe prices to be improving faster at the higher end of the market, the distressed property situation is demonstrably better at the high end, as shown below.

 

Sarasota foreclosures by price

At the end of January 2013, about 11% of all unsold homes and condominiums in Sarasota County were distressed listings. In Manatee County, the figure was higher at 17%. Yet, as the chart above shows, as the price point moves up, the number of distressed listings falls. Less than 3% of all million dollar and up listings are distressed and only 3.3%-3.9% (Sarasota-Manatee) listings over $500k are distressed. The bulk of all distressed listings are in the under the $200k price point. 

Home Prices are Up 8% Across the Nation and 9% in Florida

  
  
  
  

The latest Standard and Poors/Case –Shiller report was issued on January 27, 2013 for the month ended November 2012.  For the 11 months ended November 2012, the indices for all 20 markets followed by Case-Shiller showed increases as did the 10 market and 20 market composite indices.

Home prices in the Miami and Tampa markets (the only 2 Florida markets tracked) have increased 9% and 8%, respectively, over the past 11 months. The last time pre-crash prices were this high for these two markets was mid-2003.

The chart below shows a 10 year history of the two Florida indices along with the 20 market composite.  Notice that the severe plummet in prices stopped around the summer of 2009. For what has been nearly 4 years now, prices have bounced up and down but not really moving far from the summer 2009 prices.

 Case-Shiller by Month

Of the three indices shown, Tampa has performed the worst since first hitting bottom in August 2009. The Tampa index ultimately dropped 14% (February 2012) from the August 2009 index before starting a recovery. As of this latest report, the Tampa index is still 7% below the August 2009 level. The Miami index has broken above the August 2009 level and is making new post-crash highs.

As shown below, the Florida Markets are above average compared to other areas, but not the best. The west is screaming this year with Phoenix +21%, LA +10%, San Diego +10%, San Fran +17%, Denver +9%, Vegas +11%, Seattle +10%, and Portland +9%.

 Case-Shiller 2012 by Market

The Midwest is probably the next strongest with Cleveland +5%, Minneapolis +13%, Detroit +14%, and Chicago +5%.

The Northeast is lagging with NY +1%, Boston +4%, and DC +7%.

The Florida markets are lagging rest of the country in terms of recovery from the peak. Currently Tampa prices are 44% less than the peak hit in July 2006 and Miami is 46% under the peak while the 20 market national composite index is just 29% under its peak. Tampa and Miami are in fact part of the top 4 worst markets in this regard with Las Vegas at 57% under peak and Phoenix 45% under peak.  You may recall that one of the most compelling arguments made about housing during the boom was that baby boomers were all going to retire at the same time and move to these popular retirement areas. The party was loudest in these four markets and now the hangover is the worst.

CoreLogic Home Price Index

 CoreLogic is a data and analytics company that provides services to the real estate and financial services industries.  Using methodology similar to that of Case-Shiller, CoreLogic also produces an index of home prices for the nation and specific markets.  The latest CoreLogic report issued on February 5, 2013 for the month ended December 2012 generally corroborates the Case-Shiller results. The Nationwide Corelogic HPI increased 8.3% in this report. The broad Case-Shiller 20 market index was up 8.0% through November – very close. 

The only Florida information in the CoreLogic report is the year-to-date HPI change for the entire state, which was reported to be +9.2%. The Case-Shiller report through November shows Tampa and Miami being up 8% and 9%, respectively for the 11 months through November – also very close.

It seems undeniable that prices are increasing across the nation as well as the State of Florida. The increase in prices makes sense given the scarcity of inventory and robust sales volume that is currently occurring (see my post from last month). The caveat not provided in either report is this:

  1. Individual areas, zip codes, neighborhoods, etc. could be experiencing price changes that are wildly different than the average. In my experience, the more desirable the property, the more or faster prices seem to be appreciating.  This means prices of properties in great locations (like waterfront, downtown Sarasota, or barrier islands) or more recently constructed homes, especially on the west side of the Trail, are probably increasing faster than others.

  2. There is no guarantee as to how long this will continue. Stock market crashes of 10% or more have historically (over the past 4 years) slowed down home buying, especially in our area where many are second homes and purely discretionary purchases.

  3. Low interest rates are contributing to this boom both from the standpoint of cheap financing and poor investment alternatives.  Big upward moves in either rate might significantly slow the rate of sales and price appreciation.  Interest rates on either side (investment or mortgage) could move up significantly and still he low by historical standards.  So a big jump in rates would not be all that unfathomable.

Things may continue to improve or they may start to stagnate again. As you see by prices over the past 4 years, pricing has been a stop and go story. Depending on your situation, it is both a great time to buy or sell.

If you have been waiting for the market to bottom before buying, you may have missed it by a few months. However, much of the risk is also gone. Prices have been relatively steady for the past 3.5 years and are starting to move up across the country.  Yet prices are still about 45% under the highs in our area – that doesn’t sound horrible.

Conversely, if you have been waiting for a chance to sell, here it is. Yes, things may be better next year and prices may continue to increase, but holding and opportunity costs also mount up. Additionally, as noted above, the window can close at any time.  

Downtown Sarasota Condo Sales Increase for 4th Consecutive Year

  
  
  
  
Unless otherwise indicated, all data is from My Florida MLS and Trendgraphix  for the property type condominium, the entire ZIP code  of 34236, and period indicated.
 

Downtown Sarasota condominium sales in 2012 exceeded the number sold in 2011 by 3%. This makes the 4th calendar year in a row that sales have increased over the prior year.   

sarasota condo sales
Sales would have most likely been higher this year if not for the low levels of unsold inventory. There simply weren’t enough condominiums available for sale to support a higher volume of sales. As the chart below shows, inventory levels have been bouncing around between 200 and 300 residences since mid 2010. That is about 25%-40% less than the levels on hand during 2005 and 2007 when sales about 550 and 450 respectively.

sarasota condo inventory
The 2012 year -end inventory levels represent about 8 months of supply. While 8 months of supply is generally consider high (high levels of inventory relative to sales), I have pointed out in a previous article where that generalization doesn’t seem to apply for the downtown market. Only once in the past 10 years has the December inventory level equated to less than 6 months of supply (that was December 2005 when inventory represented 5.6 months of supply). Additionally, there were many more condominium residences available for sale in 2005 and 2007 than appeared in MLS. Many of the sales represented new construction sales.  New construction inventory is rarely entered into MLS and if it is, it is usually one listing for each floor plan (as opposed to each residence that was for sale). So in essence, there were sales with no inventory as far as the calculation of the statistic is concerned.


Sarasota Condominium Results by Building

Sarasota condo sales for 2012 by buidling

 
The chart presents buildings that accounted for 187 of the 244 sales in ZIP code 34236 that occurred on the east side of the Ringling Bridge (ie excluding Lido) and all builidngs in this same location where the average sale price exceeded $200,000 for the year.


The average sales prices tells a mixed and probably inaccurate story the direction of prices. Prices of residences in the same building can vary significantly based on size and view. However, the one telling statistic is the total amount invested in this group of buildings compared to last year. During 2012, the 187 sales transactions represented a total investment of $126.4MM. The 178 sales in 2011 only amounted to $99.7MM. While unit sales increased just 5%, the dollar volume of all sales increased by 26.8%. The increase represents a shift in the mix of sales toward the luxury end of the market and probably to a lesser degree, an increase in prices. The easiest illustration of a mix shift can be seen in the Hudson Crossing and La Bellasara buildings. The change in the annual sales dollars in Hudson Crossing (average price of $1,382k) and La Bellasara (average price of $2,616k) accounted for about 40% of the dollar increase in investment.
 

 

Sarasota County Real Estate Recap - Sales Up Inventory Down

  
  
  
  

Sarasota Condominiums

Sales of Sarasota Condominiums totaled 2,347 during the 12 months ended November 30, 2012 - an increase of 11.7% over sales in the prior 12 month period. Sales in the past 3 months have been trending even stronger, up 21.7% over the same three months in 2011. The chart below shows performance by area of the county:

Area

Last 12 Months

Sales Volume

% Change Over Last Year

Current Quarter % Change

Entire County

2,347

12%

22%

Downtown (Inc. Lido)

314

2%

-1%

Longboat Key

355

16%

9%

Siesta

346

24%

47%

Palmer Ranch

185

17%

43%

South County

771

15%

37%

Meadows

122

27%

-24%

 

Most areas of the county experienced double digit gains over the 12 month period and even stronger gains over the past 3 months. The only exceptions are the Downtown and Meadows areas where inventory levels have reached basement.  There are only 42 condos listed for sale in all of ZIP code 34235 (which includes the Meadows). In 34236 (which is downtown Sarasota including Lido and St. Armands) there are 232 condominium residences listed for sale. I search Trendgraphix inventory records and could find no month back to January 2003 where inventory was this low. In fact the lowest month I found was January 2003 when 311 residences were on the market. Unsold inventory in Downtown Sarasota is now 25% less than the pre-crash 10 year low.

Sarasota Single Family Homes

Sales of Sarasota County single family homes totaled 6,447 residences for the 12 months ended November 2012, up 6.5% for the 12 month period and 9.5% for the past 3 months.

 

Area

Last 12 Months

Sales Volume

% Change Over Last Year

Current Quarter % Change

Entire County

6,447

7%

10%

West of Trail area

91

10%

15%

Longboat Key

84

1%

0%

Siesta

166

11%

12%

Palmer Ranch

319

22%

7%

South County

3,894

7%

11%

North County

374

7%

1%

The Landings Area ZIP 34231

495

13%

37%

East Co 34240 and 34241

 

427

-2%

0%

 

At November 30, 2012 there were 2,256 single family homes on the market in Sarasota County. While not a post crash low (that was in August 2012 when we dropped to 2,069 homes) it is still very low. You have to go back to June 2005 to find another month before this year where inventory was this low. The least amount of homes on the market in the past 10 years was in December 2004 when only 1,602 homes were listed for sale. The peak level was February 2008 when 8493 homes were listed for sale.

The 2,256 homes for sale represents 4.2 months of supply using the average monthly sales over the past 12 months.  That is very low, meaning that buyers have comparatively little inventory from which to select their home. Generally, anything below 6 means that sellers should have the upper hand in price negotiations

Sarasota Single Family Home Sales Near Peak Level of 2004

  
  
  
  

Sarasota Single Family Home Sales up 6.4% for 12 Month Period Ended 10/31/2012

Unless otherwise indicated, all data is from Trendgraphix and the My Florida Regional MLS where the property type is Single Family Home and the period is as indicated.

Single family home sales continued their brisk pace in October rising 4.5% over September and 8.8% over October 2011. For the 12 months ended October 31, 2012, sales were up 6.4% over the previous 12 month period. Sales for this latest 12 month period were less than 10% off the calendar year high for sales set in 2004.

Sarasota Home Sales 2012

Sarasota Single Family Homes For Sale

All while sales have been increasing, the number homes available for sale has been generally declining. While there was a slight increase in homes available for sale during October (up 3.3% from September), inventory was still down some 22.7% compared to October 2011. The chart below tracks the decline since the peak level in early 2008.

Sarasota Homes For Sale

Sarasota Single Family Home Sales and Inventory by Price Point

If you see a home you like for under $250,000 in Sarasota, odds are its already under contract. At this price point there are only 2.2 months of supply available. As low as that is, it still represents a 33% decrease from this time last year. In fact, the MOS statistic improved double digits for all price points. Now, every price point under $1M has less than a year of supply on hand.

Another positive indicator not obvious from the chart is the increase in sales in the over $2 million price point. During the past 12 months, this price point increased 27% over the past year, more so than any other price point.

 

Sarasota home Sales by Price Point

Downtown Sarasota Condo Selection Getting Very Thin Under $500k

  
  
  
  

 

Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market Recap

Unless otherwise indicated, all data is from My Florida Regional MLS and Trendgraphix for property type Condominium, ZIP Code 34236, and the time period indicated.

Updates on the downtown market are starting to sound like a broken record. Inventory is still low and sales amazingly strong considering there are so few residences for sale. Compared to September 2011, inventory is down about 12%. 

sarasota condominium inventory

Sales for the 12 months ended September 30th, 2012 are ahead of same 12 month period ended 2011 by about 3.6%. If the sales line below looks like it's flattening out, it should. The decrease in condominiums on the market will put the brakes on sales.

sarasota condo sales

 

 Downtown Sarasota Condominium Market by Building

By building information is presented below.  The mix of sales between size, view, condition, etc could change between years so I don't think that you can draw too many valid assumptions about the direction of prices from this analysis. However, you can say that about $5 million (about 5.6%) more was invested in this group of buildings during the 12 month period ended September 30, 2012 compared to the previous 12 month period.  

Downtown Sarasota condos

 

 

Since the number of residences sold increased just 3.6%, that would imply that the difference is due to the combination of higher prices or a change in mix toward generally more preferable (higher priced)  residences. Kanaya is an example of a mix change. The 2011 figures represent the sale designer ready residences (i.e. there were no kitchens, floors, baths, wall texture or paint in the residences sold) where this year’s sales include mostly finished residences.

You can also see that purchasers of downtown properties were attracted to the most moderatly priced bayfr ont properties. Condo on the Bay experienced a huge surge in sales volume during the past 12 months. 

Downtown Sarasota Market Through the Eyes of a Prospective Purchaser

Looking at the macro numbers or even the building numbers doesn’t fully show just how tight the market is right now. Consider the chart below that filters the available inventory as a prospective purchaser might do:

 

Residences on the Market Meeting Requirements

For Date Indicated

 

09/30/10

09/30/11

09/30/12

At least 2BR/2BA with 1200+  s.f. under air, priced under $500,000

87

53

38

Same as above but built in 1990 or later

43

22

13

 

 

 

 

At  least 3BR/2BA  with 1500+ s.f. under air, priced under $1,000,000

21

23

14

Same as above but built in 1990 or later

11

12

11

 

 

 

 

At least 3BR/3BA  with2000+  s.f. under air, over $1,000,000

71

48

46

Same as above but built in 1990 or later

70

47

43

 

While nearly every category shows a large percentage reduction in inventory, the under $500,000 market is really drying up, especially in the newer buildings. And this is just the first cut for the prospective purchaser. From here, the purchaser would further refine his search based on view, floor, building amenities and rules, parking, etc.

Six Months of Supply for Sarasota Condo Inventory. What's it Mean?

  
  
  
  

Unless otherwise indicated, all data is from the My Florida Regional MLS and Trendgraphix for all Sarasota county, condominium product style, and time periods indicated

Typically Realtors® consider a 6 month’s supply of unsold homes as a balanced market. A balanced market is one in which there is enough supply and demand such that neither buyers nor sellers have any particular advantage. Less than six months of supply (MOS) supposedly gives sellers the advantage because buyers have fewer options. Over 6 months and buyers have many options and can better dictate terms to sellers.

This somewhat back-of-the-cocktail-napkin rule may hold true for other parts of the country but it sure doesn’t seem to apply here. The Sarasota condo market hasn’t seen anything close to 6 MOS since 2004 when the statistic hit 5.6 months in July. And in the 12 months following that, prices increased over 27%. I don’t believe that the average buyer during that period thought of the market as being balanced or even fair for that matter. Consider the chart below.

MOS Chart SRQ Condos

I have shown the end of month July inventory of Sarasota condos next to the prior 12 months of sales and calculated the MOS. Next to each MOS calculation I show the change in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the Tampa market over the 12 month period FOLLOWING the inventory.  For example, the first row shows the July 2003 inventory value, the August 2002-July 2003 sales, the implicit MOS calculation, and the change in Tampa home prices for the period August 2003-July 2004. The idea is to show what happened to prices after we hit a certain MOS point.

First, I will admit that using the Tampa price index is not particularly valid and may in fact bear no resemblance to our price history. But I don’t have many choices. It’s either that or the Miami index, or some national composite index. None of those is going to reflect our exact supply and demand curves. Nearly all of the indices follow the same pattern over the years presented, however. The only squirrelly observation is the 2010 year where prices declined more from the previous year even though the MOS statistic improved 20% from 20 to 12. Of all the numbers on the chart, that is the only one that looks questionable – like the real price change should be between -4.1% and +3.4% (the results on either side of the  year in question).

Notice first that there is a general correlation between next year’s prices and the MOS statistic. Generally, the MOS improves (gets smaller) prices improve (either the decrease is less than the prior year or the increase larger). The lone exception is 2010 which I have discussed above.

Next notice that, aside from July 2012, we have only approached 6 MOS one other time, in 2004. Admittedly, these observations represent just one snapshot per year. Scanning the 2004 inventory numbers for each month, it looks like we could have been under 6 MOS for about 8 months in 2004. But that’s it. I don’t think we would have hit in any other year.

So what does this mean?  There is currently 14% less inventory (fewer choices) on the market for each sale (buyer) compared to 2003 and 2005 when prices increased 14%-16%.  And only about 10% more inventory per sale (buyer) than was on hand in 2004 when prices skyrocketed 27% over the next 12 months. Also 50% less per sale than in the previous 12 month period when sales increased 3.4%. It means that 6 months of supply is not all that much inventory compared to our historical standards.

I think it also means that this we could be in for a wild ride this winter. Assuming that no crisis erupts external to the housing market (like a stock market crash, international banking crisis, another war, sudden increase in interest rates, etc), we could see more people chasing the same condominium than ever before.

Scott Norris is a full-time Broker Associate with the perennial sales-award-winning Coldwell Banker office in Longboat Key, Florida. He has been a resident of the area since 1971 and a real estate professional since 2002. For questions about any of these posts or buying or selling property in the area, Scott can be reached on his direct line at 941-545-8706 or by email at Scott@ScottNorris.com. Connect with Scott on LinkedIn at http://www.linkedin.com/in/jscottnorris.  Visit his website at www.ScottNorris.com to simplify your search for Sarasota and Bradenton Homes with no registration required.

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